Florida's statewide apartment rent growth came in at just 0.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, well below the national rate of 1.4% — but that statewide average hides a sharp divergence between metros. Jacksonville led the state at 1.5% growth and Orlando posted 1% growth, while Southwest Florida markets continue to post outright declines. For DSCR investors, treating "Florida" as one rental market right now means missing exactly where the underwriting risk — and opportunity — actually sits.
The statewide number, and the metros driving it
Per RealPage's Florida market webcast recap for the third quarter of 2026, statewide apartment rent growth of 0.6% year-over-year trailed the national average of 1.4%, continuing a pattern of Florida underperforming the broader U.S. rental market. But the metro-level breakdown tells a more useful story for underwriting purposes: Jacksonville led the state at 1.5% rent growth, which RealPage attributed to a sharp slowdown in new apartment deliveries improving the local supply-demand balance. Orlando posted roughly 1% growth on rising renter retention and easing supply pressure. Miami and Fort Lauderdale showed stable but slower growth as job additions and leasing traffic cooled. Cape Coral, despite still-weak fundamentals overall, posted its first positive quarterly rent growth since early 2023 — a potential early signal, though one quarter of data. Sarasota continued to show the weakest apartment fundamentals in the country, consistent with the heavy supply and soft demand driving the Southwest Florida rent declines we've covered previously.
The pattern across these metros is consistent: markets where new apartment construction has slowed enough for demand to catch up are seeing rents stabilize or grow again, while markets still absorbing a wave of recent deliveries continue to see downward rent pressure.
Why this divergence matters for your DSCR underwriting
DSCR loans qualify based on a property's rental income relative to its debt obligations, which means the rent assumption you underwrite to is the single most important number in the deal — more important than it would be on a loan that also considers your personal income. A market-level statewide average of 0.6% growth could lead an investor to assume flat-to-modest rent growth everywhere in Florida, when the reality is a jacksonville-area property may be seeing genuine upward rent momentum while a Fort Myers or Sarasota-area property is still working through supply absorption. Using the wrong regional assumption in either direction changes your real debt service coverage ratio.
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Check Your DSCR Options Call: (941) 260-3051How to underwrite rent assumptions by metro, not by state
The practical takeaway for DSCR investors is to source rent comps at the submarket level rather than relying on a statewide or even metro-wide average, and to factor in the local supply pipeline — how many new units are scheduled for delivery in that specific submarket over the next 12-24 months — since that pipeline is the leading indicator for which direction rents are likely to move next. A Jacksonville or Orlando property in a submarket with a genuinely slowing delivery pipeline supports a more confident rent-growth assumption than a comparable property in a Southwest Florida submarket still absorbing recent deliveries. We covered the Southwest Florida side of this divergence in detail in our recent look at Sarasota-Manatee condo price declines, and our piece on Florida insurance rate cuts and DSCR cash flow covers the other side of the cash-flow equation investors should be modeling alongside rent.
These are metro-level averages from a single quarterly report — individual submarkets, property classes, and unit types can perform meaningfully differently from their metro's headline number, so always verify current comps for your specific target property and submarket before finalizing a purchase decision.
Q2 2026 Florida rent growth by metro
| Metro | YoY rent growth (Q2 2026) | What's driving it |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | +1.5% | Sharp slowdown in new deliveries improving fundamentals |
| Orlando | ~+1.0% | Rising retention, easing supply pressure |
| Miami / Fort Lauderdale | Stable, slower growth | Cooling job additions and leasing traffic |
| Cape Coral | First positive quarter since early 2023 | Still weak fundamentals overall, but early stabilization signal |
| Sarasota | Weakest in the nation | Heavy recent supply, soft demand |
| Florida statewide | +0.6% (vs. +1.4% national) | Blended average masking sharp metro-level divergence |
Frequently asked questions
Is the Florida rental market recovering or still declining?
Both, depending on the metro. Jacksonville and Orlando are showing renewed rent growth as new construction slows, while Southwest Florida markets like Sarasota and Fort Myers continue to see rent declines from oversupply.
Why did Jacksonville rents grow faster than the rest of Florida?
RealPage attributes it primarily to a sharp slowdown in new apartment deliveries, which allowed renter demand to catch up with available supply faster than in other Florida metros.
Should I use a statewide rent growth average when underwriting a DSCR loan?
No — statewide averages can mask significant differences between metros and submarkets. Always source rent comps at the local submarket level for DSCR underwriting.
Is Cape Coral's positive rent growth a sign the Southwest Florida market has turned around?
It's one positive quarter after a long decline, and fundamentals remain weak overall — worth watching, but not yet confirmation of a sustained turnaround.
Sources: RealPage, "Florida Webcast Recap: 3rd Quarter 2026" (July 28, 2026).
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